Tue Dec 09, 2014 11:57 am
I was going to say the same. Initially Wales was very much divided - it was what, 50.3, 49.7 back in the 1997 referendum. Now, Wales seems quite firmly behind devolution, and potentially more powers. Survey evidence is interesting though - people like the idea of more powers, but when they are asked whether they like the idea of differences in policy between England and Wales (e.g. different income tax rates) they are a lot less keen. Devolution isn't always about different policies - especially in tax its more about accountability and incentives to grow the economy - but still shows people don't really think fully rationally on this issue.
On the airport, I think the main problem was that it seems the Welsh Govt overpaid. They wanted to do a deal and the former owners were able to take advantage of that. They got an appraisal of the value of the airport, which apparently said the agreed price represented value for money - but I'm not convinced given the need for subsidised loans, route development, capital investment etc. Although would have to look at the accounts. They paid about £55 million I think. On a typical P/E ratio, profits of around £3-4 million might be fair. I guess if you expect profit growth as well, current profits might even be lower and it still represent good value. But I do worry Cardiff will find overcoming Bristol's economies of scale difficult - especially in the low cost market. I'd like info on how many city breaks people take though. I think people in South Wales take far few city breaks and short holidays than people in S. East England, even if you control for income. Probably because fewer flight options available. Could that be a market for the airlines and Cardiff Airport to tap into?