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Today's Vote

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RandomComment

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Re: Today's Vote

PostWed Jul 20, 2016 5:46 pm

Sorry - I meant 140 (thats what I used to calculate the 12% fall - 130 would have been a much bigger fall).

And I'm sorry... the following... "asymptotic money making speculation spike" is not a proper rebuttal of why one should not use the values reached just before the referendum result. The reason the pound rallied against lots of currencies, including the Yen, is expectations of the likelihood of Brexit fell from something 35% to 10% over the last 10 days (clearly wrong.. but thats what the money markets showed). You can literally plot the polls and the currency movements to show the very strong links between the two.

So was there speculation? Yes! On the result of the poll! You seem to be arguing that there was some other reason driving the Yen up over the week before the poll - some self-reinforcing speculation that has nothing to do with the poll but was just people hoping to make money in the run up to the poll. That just doesn't make sense as the news was all about how the pound would weaken if we voted to leave so the bulk of people engaging in such speculation would be bound to lose out in such circumstances. Speculative bubbles can happen when the markets are not well understood or potential turning points or triggers uncertain. They don't happen in these kinds of circumstances!

So as usual, its your economic reasoning that is questionable. As is your general amenability as a person. As usual you hurl the insults. Part of me now wonders if you believe or care about half the things you say. Or you just quite like the idea of winding up someone who does. I find it all rather sad - but then I am rather earnest.

Also not sure you understand the concept of an asymptote, but hey ho.
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Zach

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Re: Today's Vote

PostWed Jul 20, 2016 5:55 pm

As is your general amenability as a person.


You are a nasty piece of work, you don't like when you post incorrect information and get caught out, you gets a bit ruffled like!

Sorry yes we all make mistakes, including your badself
Look the vote is over, you lost, get over it, but don't make up figures to support your scaremongering claims.

Still don't believe here is a hot off the press Graniad article, from the lefty side of the debate

Pound and shares rise as Bank signals limited Brexit fallout -as it happened
EU consumer confidence falls after Brexit
Bank of England: no clear sign Brexit slowdown is underway
European markets rise on Brexit fallout relief
UK jobless rate hits lowest in more than a decade
Pound rises on better-than-expected data


:mrgreen:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

You could pack in your economics jobs and get something where you can predict the future.
Get a sandwich board with "the end of the world is nigh*" and walk up and down High St.

* in 400billion years
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Zach

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Re: Today's Vote

PostWed Jul 20, 2016 6:16 pm

Remember you started this thread, with this conceited diatribe, so don't be surprised that people are now laughing at you. :lol:

I'm an economist so that is what I know most about. It is not the only issue people are voting on, but it is one of the most important. On this the evidence is pretty overwhelming: being in the EU is good for our economy, and leaving it would damage it:


PLEASE CAN SOMEONE DELETE THIS THREAD.
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RandomComment

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Re: Today's Vote

PostWed Jul 20, 2016 6:39 pm

I made a mistake with 130 - a pretty obvious one that you probably realised was a mistake - and I apologised. The 12% fall I calculated was based on the correct 140 figure, and the correct pre-referendum 159 figure (reached as the markets priced in "Remain").

Many people "lash out" when they get caught out making mistakes or lying. I'm probably guilty of that too. But with my dealings with you thats really not the case. I "lash out" in response to insults from you: "you really are a worse economist than I thought"; the tourist and market rates being "different you know" in the last post alone. You are often the instigator of personal attacks on here - witness your snarky remarks about Bayscape. And I also get frustrated when I point out flaws in your logic or in your argument and rather than admit or address them head on, you retort with an insult or move on to another topic in an attempt to deflect. Its the kind of debating society tactic that works all too well in politics - and I find that depressing.

I'll have to just learn to ignore the bait.
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Mr Blue Sky

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Re: Today's Vote

PostWed Jul 20, 2016 8:03 pm

RandomComment wrote:I'll have to just learn to ignore the bait.


But this is your thread! You know, the one where you were quoting IFS reports about the UK''s relationship with the EU.

Pretty sly considering you work for the IFS.

Do you have the self-awareness to accept that you are often wrong and to conclude that you're not as wise or knowledgeable as you seem to believe?

Can you concede that you're often wrong, the IFS is often wrong and the EU is often wrong?

Your lengthy explanations/sermons/rebuttals are very verbose and a bit too jargon-filled. You are a young man with limited life experience and your arrogance isn't winning you many admirers.

We know that you're clever and that you went to Cambridge and you're an economist and you work for the IFS. Well done. But you don't know everything and your opinion is worth no more than anyone else's.

I was tempted to comment when you wrote that the redbrick building earmarked for demolition on Park place was worth saving. You took the exact opposite position concerning the University Settlement building in Splott, when that was a building far more worthy of being retained.

I am an anti-elitist and you are an elitist, so it is inevitable that we will clash. Maybe you should start your own blog to encourage debate on your own terms.
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Zach

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Re: Today's Vote

PostWed Jul 20, 2016 8:16 pm

witness your snarky remarks about Bayscape


I'll think you'll find my snarky remarks about Bayscape (6 years ago) was in regards that it was pie in the sky project, to which point I was proved correct.
As regards the 159 figure which you seem to be sticking to, it would have not been there the next day if a remain vote was declared, with traders unwinding their pre-vote positions. Maybe currency trading is not your forte either!

Image


Same thing happens in electronics, when there is not enough bandwidth in the system, or is on the edge of regenerative feedback (i.e. currency traders!)

Image


Or even try this one? (hint American stock market 1929)
Image
Last edited by Zach on Wed Jul 20, 2016 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RandomComment

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Re: Today's Vote

PostWed Jul 20, 2016 8:24 pm

* If there is evidence that leaving the EU has turned out to be good economically (which the avoidance of recession will not be evidence of) - then I will admit that economists as a group got it wrong, myself included. As I said, I worry that if the sky doesn't cave in we will be accused of being wrong because Brexiteers have successfully caricatured what we said.

* My "lengthy explanations" are lengthy because many of these issues are complex and I try to properly address them rather than just make a bunch of bald bold assertions.

* I'd never be stupid enough to claim to know everything - and I certaintly would never claim to be able to predict the economy with certainty. But I just think its foolish to say my "opinion is worth no more than anyone else's" on economics. Its an area I have at least a modicum of professional expertise. I'd say a footfall pundits view opinion on football is probably better informed and more likely to be accurate than mine. I'd say the same of a doctor, a nurse, a plumber, a climate change scientist, etc. etc. on their area of specialist knowledge. I admit my opinion is less informed in many areas. Yet I'm arrogant when I think I'm better informed than most people on a topic I have professional knowledge in? It just makes no sense! And its a double standard.

* I wasn't calling for the building in Cathays Park to be listed or permission to be refused - I just said I quite liked it and thought it did contribute to the street scene in that area. I didn't like the design of the new building, which is in a much more visible spot than the Splott settlement (and that does matter).

* And finally... Yes, I started this thread. I don't mind people taking a different stance to me. What I do object to is direct personal insults and baiting.. as opposed to a proper debate/discussion/argument on the issues. This forum can and has been a good place to chat about issues broadly related to development in cardiff with like and less-like minded people. That only works with a certain amount of respect for each other as individuals, even if we think the arguments others are making don't make sense.

* And Zach. Last message to you. It was not the content but the tone of your messages about Bayscape - which I think you reprised recently if I'm not mistaken? You were unnecessarily rude about/to Christopher. It's possible to express a view without doing that - I suggest you learn.

* And drawing present lines on a graph does not make a valid exercise. Theres a pseudo science called "technical analysis" which works in certain circumstances because enough people think it works - there is nothing fundamental about markets that would make it work. This is not one of those circumstances. I acually can't believe I'm having a discussion with you about this all.
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Zach

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Re: Today's Vote

PostWed Jul 20, 2016 8:29 pm

I acually can't believe I'm having a discussion with you about this all.


Then stop replying to get the last word, to prove how clever you are and that you didn't get anything wrong :lol:

It is funny the only way I could stop you last time was to "tongue in cheek" agree with you.
Has a plot line in The Archers been about you?

Jantra

Re: Today's Vote

PostThu Jul 21, 2016 3:19 pm

well this thread has turned into a car crash
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paul cardiffwalesmap

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Re: Today's Vote

PostThu Jul 21, 2016 3:49 pm

Yes indeed we should all chill out a while til the next flare up!! :roll: at which time it may just be a good idea to ditch it!! :|
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