- Posts: 881
- Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:50 pm
Sorry - I meant 140 (thats what I used to calculate the 12% fall - 130 would have been a much bigger fall).
And I'm sorry... the following... "asymptotic money making speculation spike" is not a proper rebuttal of why one should not use the values reached just before the referendum result. The reason the pound rallied against lots of currencies, including the Yen, is expectations of the likelihood of Brexit fell from something 35% to 10% over the last 10 days (clearly wrong.. but thats what the money markets showed). You can literally plot the polls and the currency movements to show the very strong links between the two.
So was there speculation? Yes! On the result of the poll! You seem to be arguing that there was some other reason driving the Yen up over the week before the poll - some self-reinforcing speculation that has nothing to do with the poll but was just people hoping to make money in the run up to the poll. That just doesn't make sense as the news was all about how the pound would weaken if we voted to leave so the bulk of people engaging in such speculation would be bound to lose out in such circumstances. Speculative bubbles can happen when the markets are not well understood or potential turning points or triggers uncertain. They don't happen in these kinds of circumstances!
So as usual, its your economic reasoning that is questionable. As is your general amenability as a person. As usual you hurl the insults. Part of me now wonders if you believe or care about half the things you say. Or you just quite like the idea of winding up someone who does. I find it all rather sad - but then I am rather earnest.
Also not sure you understand the concept of an asymptote, but hey ho.
And I'm sorry... the following... "asymptotic money making speculation spike" is not a proper rebuttal of why one should not use the values reached just before the referendum result. The reason the pound rallied against lots of currencies, including the Yen, is expectations of the likelihood of Brexit fell from something 35% to 10% over the last 10 days (clearly wrong.. but thats what the money markets showed). You can literally plot the polls and the currency movements to show the very strong links between the two.
So was there speculation? Yes! On the result of the poll! You seem to be arguing that there was some other reason driving the Yen up over the week before the poll - some self-reinforcing speculation that has nothing to do with the poll but was just people hoping to make money in the run up to the poll. That just doesn't make sense as the news was all about how the pound would weaken if we voted to leave so the bulk of people engaging in such speculation would be bound to lose out in such circumstances. Speculative bubbles can happen when the markets are not well understood or potential turning points or triggers uncertain. They don't happen in these kinds of circumstances!
So as usual, its your economic reasoning that is questionable. As is your general amenability as a person. As usual you hurl the insults. Part of me now wonders if you believe or care about half the things you say. Or you just quite like the idea of winding up someone who does. I find it all rather sad - but then I am rather earnest.
Also not sure you understand the concept of an asymptote, but hey ho.