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F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

if it's about Cardiff.. Sport, Entertainment, Transportation, Business, Development Projects, Leisure, Eating, Drinking, Nightlife, Shopping, Train Spotting! etc.. then we want it here!
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Zach

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F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostWed Aug 10, 2016 11:21 pm

What has this city turned into :|

Saw a piece in the Echo tonight about Poets Corner being demolished and I half joke to a friend that it will turned into yet more student accommodation. Many a happy drink there over the years.

Just checked online and I can't believe that's exactly what its going to be!

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales ... r-11725885

A demolition notice was approved by Cardiff council, but late last month an application was submitted for the redevelopment of both the pub and a neighbouring shop to be turned into student accommodation.


At what point to those connected with a bubble actually realise they are in the bubble?

Why not market Cardiff as the Hen, Stag and Student Accommodation capital of the UK.
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RandomComment

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 11:17 am

I'm prepared for a diatribe... but...

Bubbles are classicly associated with a dislocation between capital prices and rents/dividends/returns. Or:

"An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly deviates from the corresponding asset's intrinsic value."

We are not seeing that (yet) in the student housing market. Rental yields are still healthy - in general, higher than usual residential yields. So at the moment prices seem still reasonably closely linked to their current intrinsic value.

What we are in instead is a student accom development boom. If course, that boom in development mayprecipitate a big decline in rents if the demand from students for all these new units is not there. There are certainly more than enough students - but many may prefer the house share option over the slightly more sterile and more expensive student accomodation option. If that happens we will have a bust. Development will cease (and we may even see conversions out of student accom in some of the 'flexible' schemes), and capital prices will tank.

That is a real risk. I don't know what probability to put on it. But the scale of development in Cardiff is obviously increasing that risk.

But there is a difference between a "price bubble" and a "development boom". In the former, prices of an asset rise on speculation of further increases in the price of the asset. In a "development boom", new supply is added quickly in anticipation that there is strong demand for the product that will support rents. Still risky, but probably less risky than if this was all being driven by capital/price appreciation.
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Frank

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 11:58 am

I don't know about bubbles, I can see the economic logic in these student towers but from a planning point of view do we really want town to be full of student flats? The development on Custom House St seems ill-conceived. Hope I'm wrong.
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Karl

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 12:35 pm

In terms of vibrancy it's probably a good thing to a lot of student accommodation in the city centre. Lots of 20 somethings going out to eat, drink, shop etc.

In terms of usage of redundant buildings again student accommodation is probably a good thing. Summit House, Coleg Glan Hafren (on City Rd), Windsor House etc were all outdated office buildings that would have remained empty or under occupied if they had not have been converted. It's also likely that the student accommodation in Capital Quarter has part financed the office element.

In terms of architecture from what I've seen so far student accommodation is at the very best mediocre - and for the most part downright awful (Ty Pont Haearn, Student Castle, Shand House etc). Do I want towers of shite blotting my landscape? Not really. I'd rather them as infill in back lanes like the scheme at Oxford Street in Roath. At least then you don't have to look at them if you don't have to.

In terms of freeing up family housing in inner city areas - I can't say I've seen any evidence to prove or disprove this theory. Anectdotally Roath seems a bit less 'studenty' but Cathays is still a complete ghetto.

Is it a bubble? Not if student numbers keep growing and living in these purpose built places remains fashionable. From my not entirely scientific investigations it appears that the rents at these places are increasing even though there are more on the market. Perhaps we are moving towards a bubble but I don't see it happening anytime soon. Maybe if there are less foreign students (effects of Brexit maybe?) there could be a surplus of places. I wonder if any of these places are future proofed for conversion to normal accommodation if the market does go tits up?
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RandomComment

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 1:13 pm

I think the two big central schemes (Hope Street and Charles Street/Bridge Street) are designed to be convertible. Thing is conversion only really makes sense if you convert the whole block. What residents or hotel would want to be located in the same block as noisy students?

I think the student experience has changed significantly over the last few years. I've heare enough anecdotes now to feel pretty confident that as students are paying more for their university they are working harder and earlier. They are also less likely to have worked before going to uni, and less likely to have done chores. Their parents are becoming more hands on (as they are often providing more subsidy) and more protective. So if you're working hard, drinking and partying less, a bit of a mummy's boy.. a set up where more things are taken care of probably seems quite convenient.
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lucky

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 3:43 pm

I've stayed at a fancy, well reviewed New York Hotel where the bottom half of the tower was subsidised student accommodation. Apart from the foyer being a bit crowded, it didn't seem to have any impact at all (and certainly not on the prices of the hotel).
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Baysailor

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 6:17 pm

Bubble / boom - doesn't matter what you technically call it. There seems to be too much being built or planned. My question is: where did all these students stay before the purpose built residences started springing up? Uni enrolment hasn't been increasing at such a pace has it? So they must be moving out of established Roath or fringe areas such as Splott or Adamsdown?
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solaris

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 6:22 pm

Many student occupied houses pay little council tax across much of Cathays, Roath....by relocating students to purpose built premises the council secures more business rates (from those companies operating the student complexes) and potentially more council tax as more houses convert back to being family homes, professional rentals, etc. Cardiff has a rapidly growing population and a shortage of "housing". Seems the drive to build more student accommodation makes sense on many fronts ....
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LocalLurker

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 6:40 pm

solaris wrote:Many student occupied houses pay little council tax across much of Cathays, Roath....by relocating students to purpose built premises the council secures more business rates (from those companies operating the student complexes) and potentially more council tax as more houses convert back to being family homes, professional rentals, etc. Cardiff has a rapidly growing population and a shortage of "housing". Seems the drive to build more student accommodation makes sense on many fronts ....
This. Student accommodation is good for the city. Talking about students, it would like to see Cardiff Met bite the bullet and eventually merge with the University of South Wales, Leighton Andrews only did half a job!
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RandomComment

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Re: F'@#%£$ 'ing Student Accommodation!

PostThu Aug 11, 2016 6:45 pm

Uni rolls have gone up a fair bit:

In 2014-15 there were.
Cardiff: 30,500
Cardiff Met: 13,700

In 2009-10 there were:
Cardiff: 27,500
Cardiff Met: 13,000

That 3,700. Theres probably another 1,500 or so at Glamorgan's Cardiff campuses. So just over 5,000 more students over 5 years. Perhaps that is why the areas of town like Cathays aren't any less studenty despite a couple of thousand new student rooms already delivered.

Not sure what the forecasts are for the years ahead. Overall cohort size of those entering HE are going to be falling until about 2021 when they should start picking up (reflecting birth rates picking up 2003 onwards). So we'd need higher rates of enrolment to get continued student number growth.
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