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- Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:35 pm
I think its odds on that Labour will be in for a kicking. However it is simplistic to say that an increased vote for the Tories mean they will win the ten seats referred to in the Walesonline article. Any collapse in the Labour vote is likely to mean Plaid in Ynys Mon, possibly Llanelli and as an outside bet the Rhondda. I also think the likelihood of the Tories taking either Cardiff West or Cardiff South and Penarth is remote. In Cardiff West votes are likely to go to Plaid and in Cardiff South to the LibDems (who are likely to take back Cardiff Central).
I also don't think there will be much happening in the Valleys other than reduced Labour majorities. Any defection there will probably be spread equally between Plaid, Tories, UKIP and Lib Dems.
I do think there is a possibility that Labour could be wiped out in north east Wales although I suspect that they will hang on to Wrexham and Alyn and Deeside.
There is a long way to go in the election. The Tories have ample opportunity to balls up whereas frankly Labour can't really do any worse than they are doing at the moment. I think this will be a big election for Plaid. If they don't seriously increase their percentage of the vote (if not the amount of seats) it will be fairly disatrous for them. I think the best outcome for them would have been for Leanne Wood to stand in the Rhondda where she had a good chance of winning and for Adam Price to take over the Plaid leadership. She seems like a genuine woman with her heart in the right place but to me she is completely out of her depth.
I also don't think there will be much happening in the Valleys other than reduced Labour majorities. Any defection there will probably be spread equally between Plaid, Tories, UKIP and Lib Dems.
I do think there is a possibility that Labour could be wiped out in north east Wales although I suspect that they will hang on to Wrexham and Alyn and Deeside.
There is a long way to go in the election. The Tories have ample opportunity to balls up whereas frankly Labour can't really do any worse than they are doing at the moment. I think this will be a big election for Plaid. If they don't seriously increase their percentage of the vote (if not the amount of seats) it will be fairly disatrous for them. I think the best outcome for them would have been for Leanne Wood to stand in the Rhondda where she had a good chance of winning and for Adam Price to take over the Plaid leadership. She seems like a genuine woman with her heart in the right place but to me she is completely out of her depth.