Greenfield Developments

All very interesting and we should put a pin in it and let it hang there for a second, let's explore this 'activist' role. I have no idea who you think i am but I've never been an activist for anything, let alone Plaid. The only reason I became a member was because one individual could be bothered to get out into his local community and engage with the people about politics. That was something I thought worthy of respect and despite not being in full agreement of the party ideals I thought they at least deserved to be supported for their engagement alone.

All very interesting and we should put a pin in it and let it hang there for a second, let's explore this 'activist' role. I have no idea who you think i am but I've never been an activist for anything, let alone Plaid. The only reason I became a member was because one individual could be bothered to get out into his local community and engage with the people about politics. That was something I thought worthy of respect and despite not being in full agreement of the party ideals I thought they at least deserved to be supported for their engagement alone.

If you went to a meeting, or delivered a leaflet, then you were an activist.

And according to Plaid members in Penarth, you did both.

Hence my assertion that you were an activist.

I've been laughing this evening at your latest car crash of a thread on CCMB.

Your lack of self-awareness is pure comedy gold.

You are quixotic to the nth degree.

What is remarkable is that you manage to hook so many people with your pointless, repetitive, trolling tripe.

One day, someone will write a piece about you and your ultimately unproductive behaviour.

Creating nothing but discord and, I'd imagine, a profound subconscious self-loathing.

One day you will look back and realise that you've wasted literally years of your life trolling and bickering on the internet.

And guess what? I bet you haven't changed a single person's mind, on any subject, by one iota.

You have antagonised so many people that, to use your ill-understood analogy about Pavlov, they are like slavering dogs each time they see one of your latest BS posts - knowing that their intellectual or moral positions will become more deeply entrenched.

What a shame.

Guys - Please take your bickering and shaky memories elsewhere....This is a serious topic worthy of grown-up discussion.

Does Wales need more housing development. Yes.

Does it need the volumes that are currently being proposed. No.

Are the housing developments in the right places - Mixed - in particular
.................North of Cardiff - South RCT - Yes - although should be directly linked to Metro schemes
-----------------Bodelwyddan and Flintshire/Cheshire border - NO - These are just West Chester overflow. Let Cheshire manage its own housing policy.

Here's a thought - perhaps wales has a shortage of houses, or that we need to build newer stock to replace older stock.

Plaid are making ukip appear to be the least loony party in mainstream politics. Fancy that

And how sane are you? Plaid Cymru's Penarth branch members certainly discussed your mental health during your brief stint as an activist.

The Welsh Government have admitted that their initial population projections were way out.

Guess how much Wales' population grew by last year?

8100.

The LDPs are a charter for house builders and landowners to make vast profits and it is their lobbying which has shaped the EnglandandWales Planning Inspectorate's policy towards LDPs in Wales.

The point that Keith Parry, who is a good friend of mine, was trying to make is that many of the proposed new homes will be marketed and sold to English people wanting to settle in Wales, either for the better quality of life/low cost of living, or to commute to jobs in England.

After leaving Llangollen this morning I drove through the south of Wrexham borough, and as I approached the English border it was noticeable how many 'Executive home' new-build developments there were.

Welcome to west Cheshire, a county of the English province of Wales.

When our football team, rugby team, language and nationality have disappeared in 100 years time, your great-grandchildren will look back and say:

"Well done Grandad, at least we have our formulaic estates of little boxes on the hillsides."

"Who were the Welsh anyway? Just wannabe Englishmen, like Cambo Dai, the Quisling of the EnglandandWales political class."

Hey, at least we have one party in Wales not controlled from or by English people in London.

Da iawn Keith, da iawn Neil.

Do you have a source for the figure of 8,100?
Do you also have data for the increase in housing need?

@MrBlueSky

I have never delivered leaflets. Our company was once invited to the presidents dinner (or something like that) in Swansea one year and one of the girls in our office wanted to go but that's about the extent of our involvement. To be honest it was an amateurish affair and a complete waste of time (so she says).

Barden
Population: 0.27% increase according to http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estim ... index.html
0.27 x 3100000 = 8400. I heard the 8100 figure in Llangollen but its close enough.

Jacothenorth blog http://jacothenorth.net/blog/tag/popula ... ons-wales/ has details on the revision. I did the calculations on the original data, which led to Jac and Sovereign Wales writing to Carl Sargeant demanding a revision.

Guess what? We got the revision. I never wanted any credit for that.

Here are the new figures, substantaily lower as you can see.
https://statswales.wales.gov.uk/Catalog ... ear-Gender.

The old figures were based on outdated figures, from 2006 I think.

We don't need all these new houses, and what Wales does need can almost wholly be catered for on brownfield sites.

The UK is a single labour and economic market. That means people from anywhere in the UK can live anywhere in the UK. That gives opportunities for English people to move in to Wales, including rural areas of Wales. But it also gives Welsh people the opportunity to move to England - whether for family, lifestyle or career reasons (or a mix of all 3). That is one of the strengths of the union - more choice and opportunity for people on these isles.

In such an open Wales, what matters for housing demand in Wales is not Wales' underlying 'natural' population growth - but the demand for housing from people throughout the UK (and indeed, throughout Europe and from permitted non-EU migrants). Now if these people want to move to Wales and we don't build housing, what happens? Prices get pushed up and that could actually push out the 'locals'. Which would mean an even worse situation for the Welsh language and Welsh culture. New housing is therefore needed to help young Welsh people stay in rural areas of Wales. Of course, directly building lower cost housing does most to help. But even building more expensive 'executive' housing helps too - because housing is a positional good, the additional supply (and lower prices) of this housing trickles down to less pressure lower down the market.

Unspoken (but barely) in your post is the suggestion that somehow we should stop incomers from England (and elsewhere), and that would somehow square this circle. But unanswered - what about those Welsh people who currently move to England? Would there be a tit-for-tat that stopped us "taking English jobs"... or would the Welsh Government try to force us to stay in Wales to bolster our population and tax base in the face of fewer migrants from England? Then theres the fact that Wales' population is older and ageing more rapidly than England's, and working-age migrants are needed to stop demographic transition putting undue pressure on our public services and tax bases (especially under devolution of taxation).

I'd imagine that N.E Wales like Cardiff/Lower RCT is an area where most of the migrants are working age - the kind of people Wales needs more of. I'd be more worried about smaller schemes in more rural parts of mid and south-west and north-west Wales that are more likely to attract older people, either already retired or close to retirement. That is what is more challenging from an economic (and probably from a cultural) point of view.

And I think you fundamentally misunderstand how LDPs work, and how the housing market works. The LDP allows for a certain number of homes to be built - it doesn't mandate them. So if population growth is slower, and hence demand for housing is lower - which feeds into lower prices for housing - fewer houses get built because developers don't find it profitable to build them (and landowners do not find it so profitable to sell to developers). As a case in point, consider that in many parts of the country, there have been large numbers of homes with planning permission that have yet to be built, following the fall in demand for new homes after 2007 (this time driven by credit market conditions, not population).

And more specifically in the case of Cardiff, there is demand for new homes. A large part of the population growth of Wales (between a third and a half) has been taking place in Cardiff over the last 15 years. This reflects the growing importance of city economies. Whilst the rest of Wales has seen its economic position deteriorate relative to the UK average, Cardiff has seen its improve. This is a trend you see across the world. So if Wales wants to improve its economy and give more opportunity to its people, it should let Cardiff grow. It may even be good for the language if we can get an urban community of young Welsh speakers (who otherwise will drift to London or provincial English cities). The urban expansions in Cardiff need to be properly resourced, and attention needs to be paid to public transport. But they can play a real role in boosting the local and Welsh economy. We've discussed why it cannot all be done on brownfield (high costs of development make affordable low-rise family housing difficult to build on brownfield sites - and that is where Cardiff struggles: retaining 30-somethings with children!). Maybe you are happy for future generations to be living in smaller and smaller apartments (already the smallest in Europe!) but I am not... and other people won't be either and will vote with their feet.

And, let me point out the biggest inconsistency here. Planning restrictions significantly push up the cost of housing by restricting available supply. Given that housing wealth is highly unequally distributed - both within and across age cohorts - planning restrictions therefore add to the degree of inequality in society. They make the asset-rich relatively richer, and the asset poor relatively poorer. Doesn't seem a policy that an avowed left-winger who wants lower inequality should support does it? People who care about the distribution of wealth across and within generations should be supporting more building not less! It would mean less inequality and more opportunity (to move to take up job opportunities for instance). Pity some people can't think through their initial reactionary instincts to consider how they fit in with their supposed broader political/moral views.

The UK is a single labour and economic market. That means people from anywhere in the UK can live anywhere in the UK. That gives opportunities for English people to move in to Wales, including rural areas of Wales. But it also gives Welsh people the opportunity to move to England - whether for family, lifestyle or career reasons (or a mix of all 3). That is one of the strengths of the union - more choice and opportunity for people on these isles.

In such an open Wales, what matters for housing demand in Wales is not Wales' underlying 'natural' population growth - but the demand for housing from people throughout the UK (and indeed, throughout Europe and from permitted non-EU migrants). Now if these people want to move to Wales and we don't build housing, what happens? Prices get pushed up and that could actually push out the 'locals'. Which would mean an even worse situation for the Welsh language and Welsh culture. New housing is therefore needed to help young Welsh people stay in rural areas of Wales. Of course, directly building lower cost housing does most to help. But even building more expensive 'executive' housing helps too - because housing is a positional good, the additional supply (and lower prices) of this housing trickles down to less pressure lower down the market.

Unspoken (but barely) in your post is the suggestion that somehow we should stop incomers from England (and elsewhere), and that would somehow square this circle. But unanswered - what about those Welsh people who currently move to England? Would there be a tit-for-tat that stopped us "taking English jobs"... or would the Welsh Government try to force us to stay in Wales to bolster our population and tax base in the face of fewer migrants from England? Then theres the fact that Wales' population is older and ageing more rapidly than England's, and working-age migrants are needed to stop demographic transition putting undue pressure on our public services and tax bases (especially under devolution of taxation).

I'd imagine that N.E Wales like Cardiff/Lower RCT is an area where most of the migrants are working age - the kind of people Wales needs more of. I'd be more worried about smaller schemes in more rural parts of mid and south-west and north-west Wales that are more likely to attract older people, either already retired or close to retirement. That is what is more challenging from an economic (and probably from a cultural) point of view.

And I think you fundamentally misunderstand how LDPs work, and how the housing market works. The LDP allows for a certain number of homes to be built - it doesn't mandate them. So if population growth is slower, and hence demand for housing is lower - which feeds into lower prices for housing - fewer houses get built because developers don't find it profitable to build them (and landowners do not find it so profitable to sell to developers). As a case in point, consider that in many parts of the country, there have been large numbers of homes with planning permission that have yet to be built, following the fall in demand for new homes after 2007 (this time driven by credit market conditions, not population).

And more specifically in the case of Cardiff, there is demand for new homes. A large part of the population growth of Wales (between a third and a half) has been taking place in Cardiff over the last 15 years. This reflects the growing importance of city economies. Whilst the rest of Wales has seen its economic position deteriorate relative to the UK average, Cardiff has seen its improve. This is a trend you see across the world. So if Wales wants to improve its economy and give more opportunity to its people, it should let Cardiff grow. It may even be good for the language if we can get an urban community of young Welsh speakers (who otherwise will drift to London or provincial English cities). The urban expansions in Cardiff need to be properly resourced, and attention needs to be paid to public transport. But they can play a real role in boosting the local and Welsh economy. We've discussed why it cannot all be done on brownfield (high costs of development make affordable low-rise family housing difficult to build on brownfield sites - and that is where Cardiff struggles: retaining 30-somethings with children!). Maybe you are happy for future generations to be living in smaller and smaller apartments (already the smallest in Europe!) but I am not... and other people won't be either and will vote with their feet.

And, let me point out the biggest inconsistency here. Planning restrictions significantly push up the cost of housing by restricting available supply. Given that housing wealth is highly unequally distributed - both within and across age cohorts - planning restrictions therefore add to the degree of inequality in society. They make the asset-rich relatively richer, and the asset poor relatively poorer. Doesn't seem a policy that an avowed left-winger who wants lower inequality should support does it? People who care about the distribution of wealth across and within generations should be supporting more building not less! It would mean less inequality and more opportunity (to move to take up job opportunities for instance). Pity some people can't think through their initial reactionary instincts to consider how they fit in with their supposed broader political/moral views.

Are you suggesting that I'm 'left-wing'? I most certainly am not any wing at all. You have no idea who I am. I'm not a politician.

Wales has an ageing population? Largely due to elderly English incomers.

You talk about the Union with such fondness, then reduce your argument about the supply of housing to a solely Wales-wide analysis. Any homes that will be built will be disproportionately bought by English incomers, or cash-rich English people already residing in Wales.

Wales is a special case within the UK and the Welsh language is a special case within Wales. I don't really care that English people wouldn't be able to move here to retire or that they wouldn't be able to buy a holiday home or commute to Bristol or Manchester. Their 'selfish' needs are completely unimportant in comparison to the survival of Welsh identity and our language.

Most of any proposed housing in rural Wales should be reserved for people with historic ties to the area. Welsh people are already priced out and new housing won't make any difference to that reality.

As for Cardiff, if there were concrete plans to build a mass-rapid transit system including new lines or stations in the east and west of the city I would be all for new suburbs being built. The south Wales metro is floundering, no money has been committed for valleys line electrification and Cllr Patel's assertion in July that he would announce a solution to how people would travel to and from Waterhall turned out to be utter BS, as I knew it would be.

Your unwillingness to concede that landowners and housebuilders are attempting to cash in on this bonanza is worrying.

300,000 new houses = £6 billion PROFIT solely for the housebuilders.

Landowners would see agricultural land sold for £1 to £2 million per acre. 150,000 new homes on green fields, assuming 30 homes per acre, would see a £5 - £10 billion windfall for people like the Duke of Beaufort and the Earl of Plymouth.

So with the previous household/population growth projections, that would have been at least £10 billion of FREE MONEY.

It doesn't surprise me that tools of the establishment, such as yourself, take the time to shill for your imperial masters with that kind of dough at stake.

In Cardiff there's the additional problem of how UHW will cope with tens or hundreds of thousands of new people living in Cardiff, as it can't cope at the minute.

I've lived in flats my whole adult life, I've brought my children up In a flat and my grandchildren now live in a flat.

I've already succeeded in challenging the fraudulent population growth figures.

I've helped to change Plaid's policy on LDPs.

Ymlaen!

why shouldn't English people live in rural Wales? That is out and out racism. Ignoring that very bigoted view of the world that you hold, you forget that the English money buying these houses is going to Welsh people selling. If those selling stay in the area then the money stays in the area too, if they move away then there is no real transfer of wealth as the money that came into Wales to buy the property has left Wales - all that has changed is the owner of the property and the language they speak. Which is what this is really about - you can't abide non Welsh speakers living in the Welsh language heartlands.

Yet despite this Plaid calls for further integration in the EU with free movement for goods, people and capital You can't have the penny and the bun.

another point is that when the English (they could also be English language Welshmen) move in, they tend to improve the property undertaking renovations and so on, thus stimulating the local economy bringing output creating wealth from outside the area into the area.

The language will survive and prosper. Whilst Gwynedd is around 75% Welsh, Ceredigion around 50% Welsh and Carmarthenshire a bit higher than that, the percentages for school children in these areas is near to 100% showing that Welsh as a first language will not die out.

why shouldn't English people live in rural Wales? That is out and out racism. Ignoring that very bigoted view of the world that you hold, you forget that the English money buying these houses is going to Welsh people selling. If those selling stay in the area then the money stays in the area too, if they move away then there is no real transfer of wealth as the money that came into Wales to buy the property has left Wales - all that has changed is the owner of the property and the language they speak. Which is what this is really about - you can't abide non Welsh speakers living in the Welsh language heartlands.

Yet despite this Plaid calls for further integration in the EU with free movement for goods, people and capital You can't have the penny and the bun.

another point is that when the English (they could also be English language Welshmen) move in, they tend to improve the property undertaking renovations and so on, thus stimulating the local economy bringing output creating wealth from outside the area into the area.

The language will survive and prosper. Whilst Gwynedd is around 75% Welsh, Ceredigion around 50% Welsh and Carmarthenshire a bit higher than that, the percentages for school children in these areas is near to 100% showing that Welsh as a first language will not die out.

The 2011 census showed that in Gwynedd 65% of people could speak Welsh, the figure in Carmarthenshire was 44% and in Ceredigion it was 47%. The mean decline in Welsh speakers in those areas over the ten years from 2001 to 2011 was 4.9%.

It's all very well that someone (invariably the estate of someone who has passed away) will receive money for selling their home to an English incomer but that home will probably never be lived in by someone with local roots ever again. And LDPs mean that new houses will be built, with the monies going to the housebuilders .

And your assertion that opposing LDPs is racist is facile; I know that English people will always move to Wales. Building hundreds of thousands of new houses is too many, and Welsh culture will be swamped. By the way, I'm typing this in England, in my English girlfriend's house.

Plaid isn't calling for further integration with the EU. Leanne has spoken many times of the need to reform the undemocratic, unelected European Commission. I don't speak for Plaid. My opinion is that Wales should leave the UK and the EU. Norway, Iceland and Switzerland seem to be doing ok.

It was refreshing that you tacitly admitted in a post on CCMB that you are suffering from mental ill-health. Me too.

Admitting it is the first step to healing your mind. Good luck.