2015 General Election

In 2010 Wales voted in, from our 40 MP's:

Labour: 26 (36% of the national vote)
Tories: 8 (26% of the national vote)
Lib Dems: 3 (20% of the national vote)
Plaid: 3 (11% of the national vote)

... and locally

Cardiff Central: Lib Dems (Majority of 4576)
Cardiff North: Tories (Majority of 194)
Cardiff South & Penarth: Labour (Majority of 4709 although increased to 5334 at 2012 by-election)
Cardiff West: Labour (Majority of 4750)
Vale: Tories (Majority of 4307)

How do you think Wales and Cardiff will vote this time? Are the Tories toast in Cardiff North? Has the Lib Dem student support collapsed in Cardiff Central? Will UKIP get the 2nd most votes nationally?

Will be interesting to see how the electoral map changes in the coming weeks

I think UKIP are going to surprise a lot of people. Most people i have spoken to in Cardiff Central are going to vote UKIP.

That says more about your acquaintance than the overall picture. There's a Welsh-only poll out this week showing Labour on 40%, Tories on 25%, Ukip on 14% and Plaid on 11%. LibDems have a pathetic 5% so yes, the student vote for them has probably collapsed. Not sure where it's going to go; Ukip poll best amongst pensioners so probably Green and Plaid will benefit to some extent.

That says more about your acquaintance than the overall picture. There's a Welsh-only poll out this week showing Labour on 40%, Tories on 25%, Ukip on 14% and Plaid on 11%. LibDems have a pathetic 5% so yes, the student vote for them has probably collapsed. Not sure where it's going to go; Ukip poll best amongst pensioners so probably Green and Plaid will benefit to some extent.

I'm not saying UKIP will win Cardiff Central i just think they may do better than what the polls are predicting. The vast majority of people i have asked are from Pentwyn and Llanedeyrn, with the occasional few from Cyncoed. I haven't been walking the streets asking people, just the usual conversations at the pub, down the CCS or at my poker league.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-31712045

The Ashcroft polls are a little bit out of date but they suggest:
- Tories will keep Vale, South Pembs,
- Labour will gain Cardiff North (from Tories) and Central (from Liberals)
- Liberals will keep Brecon and Radnorshire

SNP doing great in Scotland. Plaid doing reasonably poorly in Wales. (although it seems better in S.E Wales that before, less well in rest of Wales).

I'm not fussing too much about the result in Wales although it could be a pointer to the Assembly elections next year. The main significance to the election is largely elsewhere. Firstly that the SNP could cause a political earthquake in Scotland. You might say they've done so already given they won an outright majority in the 2011 Scottish elections and got 45% of the vote in the independence referendum when historically support has been around 25-30%. Secondly the overall result could leave the UK in a complete mess. Current polls would suggest the most likely outcome would be a Labour minority government dependent on the SNP and Lib Dems. As much as I dislike the Tories that does NOT look like an appetising option. At least we are some way out of the economic crisis now that we might be able to manage that instability.

The result could of course be different, after all the campaign is only just starting and the polls can be wrong. But let's just consider what this might mean. 50 SNP MPs will surely demand 'devomax'. That in turn will likely lead us towards a more federal UK. A English parliament? Wales could well have federalism forced upon us whether we like it or not. That would surely be disastrous for the economy in the short term. Personally I'm not convinced the UK could survive for very long with a powerful English parliament. We don't seem to be facing up to this at the moment. The discussion around devolution has always been about what Wales wants. But what might be forced upon us?

I think UKIP are going to surprise a lot of people. Most people i have spoken to in Cardiff Central are going to vote UKIP.

I'm relieved to say that I haven't met a single person who admits to planning to vote for UKIP.

My election predictions:

Labour 27
Tories 7
Plaid 5
LibDems 1

5 seats for Plaid seems high. Would that be a record? They aren't polling that well.

Ceredigion is practically a sitting duck. We're in with a decent chance in Llanelli or Ynys Mon.

Based on Leanne's performance tonight you'll struggle to gain - although I think Ceredigion is a possibility (Lib Dems fairly confident though).