Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:38 am
Obviously I am incredibly disappointed. Not just because of the economy, but because of the kind of country it has shown we have become, and the country we risk becoming.
On the country we are. It is obvious we are incredibly divided. If anything the divide in votes across ages, education groups and social classes was even starker than I expected. Two-thirds of council tenants voted out. Four-fifths of those still in education voted in. We have become a country talking across each other rather than to each other for too long. We looked on with a sense of smug satisfaction as America fought its culture wars, not realising the same culture wars were bubbling under the surface in our country.
Related to this, I am worried about the "other Britain" that has been revealed. Is it a Britain of simple racists and idiots? No. Well, at least not entirely. But it is a Britain that has allowed the natural tendency for everyone to be at least a bit prejudiced to be manipulated. It is a Britain that voted "Out" in large part because of two misunderstandings: about the way Europe works and the power the UK actually had in it; and a misunderstanding about the role of immigration in labour market and public service problems facing the country.
Lets disgress about these misunderstandings...
Put simply, the EU Is not the undemocratic bullying parody portrayed in the right wing press. Laws are not made by "unelected bureaucrats":
- Laws are proposed by European Commissioners, who are put forward by national governments and approved by the European Parliament. This is very similar to the way the US or French presidents put their cabinets together. Are we saying France and the US are not democratic?
- Laws then need to be voted on by the European Parliament - to which we are all entitled to elect our MEPs -, and the Council of the European Union - which is made up of the governments of the EU, which are all elected by the citizens of their countries.
So fundamentally as an institution it is democratic.
So what is the issue then? Its just that in those areas where qualified majority voting (rather than unanimous voting) is required, then the UK's voice is just one of several that have to be heard - a big voice, but not the only voice. So sometimes (although rarely) we don't get our way. In principle thats no different to how democracy works in the UK. In some ways its better: we are currently led by a government almost two-thirds of people did not vote for.
Now a valid reason to vote against this would be that despite it being democratic, we don't feel part of that "demos". We aren't willing to pool our sovereignty with Europeans. I think that motivated many, if not most of the elites at the top of the Leave campaign - Gove, Hannan, for sure. Boris - well he never expected or wanted us to leave anyway. But I think many of those who voted to leave really do think they were voting to leave a club ruled by Bossy Eurocrats, where Britain consistently got told what to do against its will by unelected decision-makers.
And much quicker on migration... migration is not the reason for structural unemployment and poor quality services. The reason for that is low skills and a social housing system that stymies internal migration; and an under-investment in our public services as the fiscal consolidation has done too much on spending and not enough on taxes, and has protected the old at the expense of the young. Migration actually helps the public finances, making it easier to fund public services. And there is no evidence of any economically significant effect of migration on employment or wages of natives.
So why did people vote to a significant extent on the basis of two arguments that are largely untrue? Well, this is where I think there is some justification for saying there is a substrate of stupidity and racism involved. I think many people were wilfully ignorant. They simultaneously said they wanted "facts" while dismissing the large volumes of research and analysis that was trying to do it. Because it did not fit with their priors - that immigration is bad, and the EU is undemocratic, both of which are tinged with a bit of xenophobia -, it was dismissed as "bias". They allowed themselves to buy into the proposition put forward by a Vote Leave campaign that pushed all the anti-establishment, anti-elite buttons, but is fundamentally a creature of the elite.
So thats a long-way of saying Leave voters aren't simple racists or necessarily incredibly stupid - although some are. Its saying that many of us Remainers do think many if not most Leave voters have been wilfully ignorant of reality and the evidence out there; and have allowed themselves to be led by people who do not have their interests at heart. And I think a kernel of prejudice and a lack of real engagement in the issues has to lie behind that. Remainers have a right to be angry about that.
So, people like Zach and Mr Blue Sky can get down off their moral high horses: anger is real and justified. And if things had turned out differently, you know the Leave campaign would have been whinging about Project Fear - and "this not being over".
But Remainers have to pick themselves up and move on fairly quickly. We now face a really really difficult choice - especially those Remainers on the centre left. The question now is not "how do we undo this", its "what do we do next?". Most importantly - what relationship does Britain have with the EU and with the wider world?
All else equal, I think we would want to preserve as much of what we had with the EU. In particular, the single market and the free movement of labour (which also means applying EU market-related directives without a vote). It would be best for our economy and best for an open society.
But all else is not equal. The core of the Leave vote voted leave precisely on the issue of the free movement of labour. They will expect action. If there is instead a stitch up between the elite "free trade" Leavers and the Remainers to keep us as close to the current deal as possible, they will feel betrayed. And rightly so. If that happens I fear we'll see an even worse populism than we've seen in the last weeks and months.
So, it is time to move on.. to the very tricky decision of: What Next? Do we risk making the economic and diplomatic hit harder by moving further away from Europe than necessary? Or do risk storing up another explosion of populism from the left-behind working class?